I wasn’t convinced that the Predators would match the offer sheet for Shea Weber largely because I didn’t think they’d have enough money. By matching, they clearly do. In the grand scheme of things, nothing has changed – the Flyers still have plenty of cap space and Weber is still in Nashville.
Not many people are surprised the Predators matched. I am somewhat surprised, since I didn’t think the Preds would or could invest more than 15 per cent of their franchise value in one player. Shea Weber may be a franchise superstar, but any contract with big money and long years has considerable risk. The obvious example would be Ilya Bryzgalov, who put up less than stellar numbers in year one of his monster contract. For a money-conscious team that’s an enormous investment for a single player, though Weber has missed only nine games over the past four seasons.
Forget about the bogus statement released by the Predators, which talked about how keeping Weber was a hockey decision. That was the easy question to answer for Poile. The infinitely more important question is (and forever will be) whether or not the Preds have the money.
I’m not so sure we’ve seen the end of this. Yes, it’s possible David Poile could turn around and hand Jakub Voracek, the Flyers’ only significant RFA, an outrageous offer sheet, but I’m not talking about retaliation. I’m not convinced Weber wants to stay in Nashville, and with no Ryan Suter that team is weaker and further away from winning the Cup, and Weber has repeatedly said he wants to win.
I’m willing to bet anything that Shea Weber will be leaving Nashville in three years.
When news broke that Weber had signed, I was a little perplexed by this tweet from Darren Dreger. Weber’s camp is “surprised” that the Predators matched? I don’t get it. What did they think was the alternative? My logic’s the same as Dreger’s – the offer sheet was obviously structured to place a lot of financial pressure on Nashville with the expectation that they don’t match.
By putting his signature on that offer sheet Weber indicated he wanted to leave. I don’t think it was a matter of getting paid since a player of Weber’s calibre will get paid no matter what, this year or next year. Why hurry it? Remember, Weber is one year away from unrestricted free agency, giving him the freedom to choose wherever he wants to go. Philadelphia, it seems like, is his No. 1 destination, RFA or UFA.
It’s a pretty big risk. If Nashville doesn’t match, then Weber gets to go where he wants and a potential deal with the Preds, in which the Flyers get their 2015 and 2016 picks back in exchange for something more immediate, could be made. If Nashville matches, he’ll be forced to stay there for the foreseeable future.
Why gamble now? Why open yourself to the possibility of having the Predators match the offer sheet and retain Weber for the next 14 years? By signing, Weber erases the notion of joining the Flyers this upcoming season and possibly for the rest of his career. Wouldn’t it have been wiser to sign another one-year deal with Nashville, for which I’m sure he will be paid handsomely, and then land the big one next summer? Even if the new CBA prevents contracts over ten years from being signed, Weber was going to be one of the highest-paid defenceman regardless.
And honestly, do the Predators want to keep a disgruntled captain around for long? By matching the Preds have to keep Weber for one calendar year, which means they won’t be able to trade him until July 19, 2013, at which point Nashville will have paid him at least $27 million for a year’s worth of services. It’s an expensive investment, especially one which doesn’t have a Cup banner in the picture. Keeping Weber was a sign of goodwill to the fans as much as it was about keeping the Predators competitive, but if a guy doesn’t want to be there he won’t stay for long. All this, of course, will depend on what kind of NMC or NTC the Preds give Weber in the contract.
The Preds made the right hockey decision, and props for that, but if matching Weber somehow puts the team in a bigger financial bind, is it really worth it? Poile showed the fans they were willing to compete and match, but that still doesn’t mean Weber won’t leave. You root for teams like Nashville to succeed, but not at this kind of cost. It seems almost uncharacteristic, an off-beat move for a team that has a reputation for finding ways to win without spending a lot of money.
Canucks fans who opposed giving Weber an offer sheet will tell you that they knew Nashville was going to match all along, which was management’s reason for not doing so. Sorry, but that’s a terrible reason. That’s akin to saying you won’t try because you’re doomed to fail anyway. There were no guarantees that the Preds would match and the Flyers didn’t lose anything except maybe a little dignity. But if the reason was that Weber didn’t want to come to Vancouver, as has been reported, then I don’t blame Gillis for not making an offer sheet. If a guy doesn’t want to be there, forget it, don’t waste your time. But to convince yourself not to act because there’s a good chance of failure, then I wonder what other opportunities have been missed in the past.
Good read, I’ll just add a couple comments/opinions to a few of your points.
The money issue is an extremely complex problem. Clearly the Preds ownership had the money to retain Weber, but the bigger issue (as you pointed out) is how this will effect them going forward. Retaining his rights was the easy part, now Poile needs to undertake the difficult task of building a winner around Weber. But why would that be difficult, they clearly have the money to absorb his 7+ million cap hit? Well, having a 7+mill cap hit and being paid over 23 million in 1 calendar year are very different things. It would not surprise me if the actual cash in hand being given to Weber throughout the first 3 years of his deal seriously compromises Poile’s ability to build a winner.
As for your bet, I’ll take it. There is no way the Preds part with Weber during the first three years. They have to pay the guy over 20 million in the first calendar year, there is no way in heck they will turn around and deal him after doing that. I could see teams like TO, Philly, or Boston being able to stomach that financial load, but not the Preds. Weber made his bed, now he has to sleep in it.
I totally shared your surprise when I found out that Weber’s camp was shocked that Nashville matched. With all of the rhetoric about matching any offer for Weber, and having already lost Suter to free agency, it seemed pretty likely that the Preds would match. Pretty likely as in, more then 50% likely. I do not understand the surprised sentiment from Weber, but then again, I do not understand anything about how he handled this. (Read: Weber done fucked up bad.)
Why hurry? Well, Weber was always going to get paid, as you said. But under the new CBA, he would not get anywhere near the term he has on this current deal, would not get even a fraction of the guaranteed money he now has, and would not be able to artificially lower his cap hit. Heck, if the cap goes down as well, he straight up wouldnt get paid at the same rate either. I totally understand why Weber forced this process (I don’t agree with it, but I understand it), but the execution was horrible. Weber did not want to be part of a rebuild, wanted to play for a contender, and wanted to squeeze every last benefit he could out of the expiring CBA. Well at least he can sleep easy knowing his mattress is stuffed with $1′s and his toilet paper is made out of $5′s. (At least he is not in Canada, that would be one uncomfortable loonie mattress.)
I am of the opinion, and have been from the beginning, that the Preds had to match. Letting Weber walk at this point would have put the franchise on its last legs. They would not have been able to compete on the ice (despite Trotz’s best efforts) and would not have been able to compete off the ice. All of their hard work building up a fan base would have been erased in one off season. As you said, it was the right hockey move. The financial burden this creates is another issue, but in a place like Nashville, if the on ice product isn’t any good, the fans won’t show up. Easy choice.
Your last point is one I am quite passionate about. Most of the people I have talked to about this defend Gillis’ decision not to match because “they knew Nashville would match”. (Isn’t hindsight awesome?) And having heard this exact sentiment come out of Gillis’ mouth kind of sickens me. I can understand not making the offer sheet if Weber said “I do not want to play in Vancouver.” But that is not what happened. What happened is Gillis and the Canucks management found out that playing in Vancouver was not a “priority”. AKA: I AM NOT GOING TO TAKE A BIG DISCOUNT. The greatest player ever to lace up skates once said “You miss 100% of the shots you never take.” Shit, not only did Gillis not take his shot, he never even picked up the stick.
On an aside, several people I have discussed this with are of the opinion that Gillis did not make an offer sheet because he was diligently working on a trade. Well, if Poile was asking for Couterier and B. Schenn as a starting point from Philly, what would the starting point be for the Canucks. The Sedins? Kesler/Edler?
Basically I think people in Vancouver need to stop giving the management group a free pass on this one. This needs to be discussed, and people have to drop their 20/20 hindsight when they do it.
Poille would have matched any offer sheet from the start. This is not hindsight, I believed this regardless of money amount. Financing is simply too cheap right now, get a loan from a bank if you are that desperate.
Weber cares about making money, first. Don’t blame him at all, for it either – especially as it is mega frontloaded.
I think the Canucks would have had to give up at minimum Edler and Kesler, in return for Weber and a top-six forward. I do not think the Canucks would have been interested in making this big of a trade.
If Weber is going to be traded, if it is at the end of this year it would be because of a trade demand, financial reasons, or a big return. If in three years, I would assume Nashville would get a lot in return, mostly because NSH would have paid big money out of that contract, already.
I completely disagree and if it was that easy a decision, financially, then they would’ve matched on day 2.
I also disagree that Weber is putting money first. He tabled a pretty fair $8.5 million offer to Nashville last year in arbitration. The big bucks were going to be there anyway. I think he wanted to go to Philly and it was a great place for him. Too bad he’s seemingly shot himself in the foot.
I agree with Jason here. If this was an “easy” decision, it would have been matched within the first couple days, not dragging it out until the 11th hour. I felt that the Preds HAD to match this from the beginning, but given how the offer was structured didn’t know if they could match.
I am still not sold that money was not Weber’s 1st priority. He even went on record on the team1040 saying that his #1 priority was exploiting the current CBA.